Wednesday, 28 October 2009

The many-legged Irish Recession

"The Irish economy certainly is in a recession and, by the rule-of-thumb definition, we’re in a depression. The economy will fall by more than 10% from peak to trough. However, it is understandable that we don’t use the word ‘depression’ – as that word conjures up scenes of mass deprivation and extreme poverty in a time before a modern welfare state.

The issue of when the economy returns to quarterly growth will be more than just a statistical fact – it will be highly politicised. Optimistic forecasters predict the economy – on a quarter-by-quarter basis – will go into the black as early as the first quarter of next year. Others suggest it will occur later. Whoever is right, we will probably see GNP increase on quarter-by-quarter basis sometime next year".

Click here to read the rest of Michael Taft's post over on Notes on the Front.

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